Friday, May 15, 2009Global Warming Threat To Bahamas

VERNON CLEMENT JONESWorld Bank: 65% of Bahamian GDP Could Be Washed Away

A new report from the World Bank's energy and environment team is cautioning The Bahamas is in danger of seeing as much as 65 percent of its gross domestic product swept away by pollution-induced global warming, more specifically, the storm surges it'll send washing over this low-lying archipelago.

It may not in fact be a case of what could happen with continuing global warming but one of what will happen given the global warming that already exists, says economists with the organization. They're calling for the kind of global discussion focused on aid for jurisdictions most vulnerable to rising ocean levels resulting from the melting of polar ice caps.

According to the World Bank, this tiny nation is very much in that group of highly susceptible countries.

While they predict the worst storm surges, likely to come over the next 50 - 100 years, will hit Jamaica and Nicaragua. They're mountainous topography will in fact ensure the survival of their tourism and manufacturing economies. That's not the case with The Bahamas given its low-lying nature, in particular just how much of its GDP is made less than a mile from the coast line.

The authors wager that $7b figure representing the value of all the goods and services produced here, would be whittled down to $2.45b with the kind of sea inundation environmentalist are convinced is coming and is only a matter of time.

That 65 percent loss to its GDP actually makes The Bahamas the most vulnerable of the region's tourism nations, with only Belize managing to come with four percent points, its GDP expected to fall off by 61 percent.

The WB research, released this month, studies the effect of increasingly ferocious storms in 84 countries around the world.

The hypothesis is that we'll all see a 10 percent increase in wave height and/or extreme sea levels over the course of a century. But by mapping out those regions likely to see the greatest uptick in sea levels relative to their altitude, it's clear, say researchers, that this country's tourism economy may eventually and quite literally be sunk.

The bank's researchers are in fact calling on government's to become increasingly proactive in implementing and respecting tighter emission standards, although it is unclear whether even in moving immediately they would be able to avert the kind of outcome they're now predicting.

They're also raising the question of what if any financial assistance developed countries will lend The Bahamas and other economies most in jeopardy. Presumably, the economists are speaking to the kind of levee and dike systems in places like Amsterdam and Louisiana. The Bahamas, itself, has been criticized by local environmentalists for not being more active in the global fight against global warming considering the consequences of inaction.

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